Backward Bifurcation Analysis of a Tuberculosis Model with Vaccination as a Control Strategy

Olatinwo I.O., Olayanju A.B., Fawole T.G., Sangotola T.M., Aderinto S.J., Egbetade S. A.

It is well known that backward bifurcation plays a critical role in the transmission of infectious that can be prevented by vaccination. In this paper, we investigate the occurrence of backward bifurcation in a tuberculosis vaccination model. The method of analysis is based on the use of center manifold theory. Threshold values are determined while we derive sufficient conditions for the possibility of backward bifurcation. The result revealed the existence of a backward bifurcation in the model for the basic reproduction number R0 < 1. The implication of this result is that it is now possible for the disease to persist endemically under a condition which otherwise prevents establishment of disease.